Liberation's Lost its Fun

It's been a couple of years now since Iraq has been liberated, and the Iraqis themselves are everywhere enjoying the spoils of freedom. The collapse of the Hussein regime has been met with a brief round of applause followed now by a not so brief round of looting, violence, and sectarian politics. Currently, questions of troop levels and our future actions in the region are hot topics for discussion everywhere. Any yahoo with a 10th grade knowledge of the region and the ability to watch CNN or FOX news for 20 minutes a week can interject with their simple yet effective solutions for dealing with the situation. Being a self-respecting yahoo myself -- and the convenient owner of this here site -- I have felt compelled to enter the fray. And, heck, with all this EKG self study going on I'm running out of things to occupy my time with anyway. Now in as few words as possible, my answer to everything to do with Iraq:

Screw 'em. No I am neither a defeatist nor a Democrat. I do not think leaving the conflict will somehow solve it. In fact, I think abandoning the Iraqis to their own devises will likely lead to greater bloodshed then what we are seeing now. Moreover I feel there is even a small but real chance that such a deterioration in the situation could lead to the involvement of neighboring states like Iran and, especially, Turkey (our only real hope for a secular Islamic state in the region.) I also feel that by abandoning a war which we, at the very least, indirectly helped create we are committing a serious moral dereliction of duty. Most of all, however, I feel that we have little other choice.

The surge in Iraq, in as much as it was a surge*, has yielded few identifiable successes so far. Portions of the country are safer, but no region is truly peaceful. Fighting continues in Anbar and attacks still sporadically occur in Kirkuk and the Kurdistan north. Coalition forces continue to depart with the British leaving Basra only a short couple of weeks ago. The police force continues to remain infiltrated by militias and the politicians -- despite the fact that they can easily draft bills tackling immunity for our mercenary-lights in only a matter of weeks when they want to -- have been unable to decide on what to do with Iraq's oil wealth or any other essential topic. Even if we were to conclude that overall Iraq is safer and more stable than it was half a year ago there is little indication the Iraqi people or the Iraqi government have done anything with this change.

A bleak assessment does not a withdrawal make, however. Iraq may be in for tough times ahead, but this does not mean success is not possible. Indeed General Petraeus and many other high-ranking military officials seem to feel very strongly this way. With all due respect to them, however, the problems have always only been partially military-related. Beyond the political and security related issues mentioned previously (1) our military is taxed and consistently falling short of recruitment goals, (2) our other war is currently anything but a poster child for success**, and (3) the majority of American people care only enough to chitter chatter about it amongst themselves. In light of all this a decision to continue fighting in Iraq is not simply a question of keeping 100,000 combat troops or 60,000 combat troops, or 130,000 combats troops in the region. Rather it is a question of how to best divide the limited resources the American public has devoted to the cause of fighting its wars. There is good reason to believe another year in Iraq will only mean another couple thousand dead, wounded, and maimed American soldiers, another tens of thousands of dead, wounded, and maimed innocent Iraqis, and no more of a brighter future for a country that cannot properly conceive of its future than the the year previous. And, just as importantly, there is good reason to believe all we will have to show for it outside of Iraq is a dispirited and broken military, ever-deepening national debt, and a floundering Afghanistan.

In light of these realities a strategic retreat may be in order. Abandon Iraq to their own devises (figuratively speaking), secure Afghanistan, and, when our military has recovered, our reputation is on the mend, and the Iraqi partisans have had their fill of bloodshed we can reengage and properly, hopefully, fix the wound that is Iraq. A complete withdrawal is not necessary or even advisable. Intelligent planning on force reduction and the rescue of pro-Coalition Iraqi refugees can be achieved. This is certainly not a great idea, but, unfortunately, it very well may be the best. Unless the Iraqis begin to show they are willing to do anything but squabble and unless the American public is willing to invest any more to the cause than idle chatter our choices are few and poor. As we learned in the Pacific theatre in World War II and on the Korean Peninsula in the opening volleys of the Cold War sometimes the best strategy is the strategy of temporary retreat. In our current Global War on Terrorism if we are unwilling to fight harder than we must certainly fight smarter.

*Iraq is larger than California which is larger than Japan which, after world WWII, was occupied initially by some 350,000 US soldiers and marines; there have been roughly 170,000 military personnel in Iraq according to the more generous estimates and even including an additional 126,000 American and foreign contractors to the equation still yields only 296,000 in comparison.

** Attacks in Southern Afghanistan continue to increase while repair and reconstruction projects and funding continue to decrease. Although many NATO nations have responded to requests for further troops (Poland, the Netherlands, Denmark, the Anglo states) others can barely maintain public support for current levels (Germany, Spain, Norway, Turkey) and others have actually slightly reduced their contributions (France.) Moreover it should be noted that non-Anglo states provide only a fraction of the NATO force in Afghanistan and many have rules against active engagement except for in extraordinary circumstances. If the amount of drug production in a nation is any degree of its strength or stability, the country's record opium crop this year (the largest also in the world by far) should not be very encouraging.

There. I've talked about both Iraq and Paris Hilton now. My blogging obligations are over. Seacrest out.